The magic 8 ball - What does it say?

ANYONE who knows me will already know that I am absolutely dreadful at predicting anything.  It's a pure fact.  2010 was a luckier year for me in that aspect, but 2011 has already followed the previous poor rate of success.  I may not have a crystal ball, but the magic 8 ball, which you can still get at weird shops and fairs, and also even as a phone application is my predictor.

So, last night, I put him to the test and asked it some questions.  This is the feedback it gave me.  Trust it as a sign...

Will Jamaica still be in the Commonwealth by this time next year? Don't count on it

Is Gordon Brown going to make a sensational return to politics? My sources say no

Will a Skins movie ever be made? Without a doubt

Does Milton Keynes stand any chance of ever gaining city status? Concentrate and ask again

Do you see wedding bells for Nicole Scherzinger and Lewis Hamilton? Without a doubt

Should Chelsea realise they made a mistake and sell Fernando Torres in January 2012? Outlook not so good

Will a British side win the 2011/12 UEFA Europa Leauge? Outlook good

Do you see Ed Miliband remaining as leader of the Labour party at the end of the year? As I see it, yes

Is Sebastian Vettel going to wrap up the 2011 FIA Formula One world championship next weekend in Singapore? It is decidedly so

Will Gaddafi be found in his hiding place? Without a doubt

Will England win the 2011 Rugby World Cup? I'd better not tell you now

In 2,000 years, would you say that dinosaurs return to rule the planet? Reply is hazy, try again

A u-turn by Simon Cowell; will he return to be a judge for the live shows of The X-Factor?  Yes- definitely

A Manchester club to win the 2011/12 Barclays Premier League? Reply is hazy, try again

Do you see Sarah Palin being the next president of the United States?  Very doubtful

Can Nick Clegg make himself even more unpopular with another change of heart?  My reply is no

Will HMV follow Woolworths in going bust by the end of the year?  Ask again later

Do you see it snowing on Christmas Day 2011?  Yes

Out of someone I personally know, will there be a winner of the National Lottery?  Cannot predict now

Do you see Hollyoaks being axed by Channel 4 next summer?  As I see it, yes

So, there you go.  Believe it or not, the magic 8 ball has had its say - let's see if it carries physic powers!

2010: A year in politics

CHANGING times in politics and 2010 has been a very busy and chaotic year.  Demonstrations, recriminations, ramifications, blunders – it has had as much drama as a typical episode of Holby City.  A new coalition government, a new era or the same old story for some, this year has been the most dramatic in politics for some time.

DOOMED: Darling's budget bought grim news

It all began in January when Geoffrey Hoon and Patricia Hewitt tried to start a rebellion to usurp Gordon Brown from his position as leader of the Labour party.  This failed miserably, but it summed up the frustrations of some within the Labour government.  They were convinced that they were going to lose the General Election.  The bad press continued as three Labour MP’s were charged over their use of expenses from the devastating political scandal that ripped through the system in 2009.  Alistair Darling’s final budget as Chancellor of the Exchequer in March bought the predictable grim news that we were all fearing.  However, these fears would be briefly replaced by a sense of election fever.

TWIST: The leadership debates bought more intrigue

Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg went onto the campaign trail across the country.  Power swayed between the three political parties, which included live televised leadership debates.  Held on ITV, Sky and BBC for three consecutive Thursdays in April, the debates sparked a new form of interest to many, especially as these were held in primetime form.  Brown’s chances of staying in Downing Street took a significant blow, when he had a fateful meeting on immigration with long-time Labour supporter Gillian Duffy in Rochdale.  “That was a disaster, everything; she’s some sort of bigoted woman that said she used to be Labour. I mean it’s just ridiculous.”

FISTCUFFS: Adam Boulton vs Alistair Campbell live on Sky

Whilst UKIP leader Nigel Farage was lucky to escape with his life, after a plane crash in a final bid for campaigning votes on Election Day, the election went through with minimal fuss.  The country spoke and a ‘hung parliament’ was the outcome.  The Conservatives won the most amounts of seats, but not the magical number needed for a majority.  Coalition negotiations began between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, whilst Brown sat and waited in No.10, hoping for a miracle to survive.  To keep the election headlines going, Sky News political editor Adam Boulton and ex-Labour spin doctor Alistair Campbell had a near punch-up live on Sky’s Live at Five. 

On May 10, Brown announced he was stepping down as leader of the Labour party.  24 hours later, he decided to quit Downing Street.  As he walked away with wife Sarah and their two children, Brown’s final graceful words were; “As I leave the second most important job I hold, I cherish more the first I have, as a husband and father.  Thank you and goodbye.”

A few hours later, David Cameron rolled into Downing Street with wife Samantha to take the role as Prime Minister.  Nick Clegg took the Deputy Leader role and speculation began on his appointment; would it seem like a bad romance or a match made in heaven. . .

JOY: David Cameron cradles his new bundle of joy

Later that month, David Laws resigned from the new cabinet after claiming expenses to pay rent for his partner.  George Osbourne, the new chancellor delivered an emergency budget in June, stating; “This helps deal the country with its growing massive debts.”  “It pays for the past and plans for the future.”

The summer went past a little quieter, but for the Prime Minister, it bought a mixture of celebration and tragedy.  His father passed away after illness, but David Cameron’s wife Samantha gave birth to a beautiful baby girl whilst on a family holiday.  Florence Rose Endellion Cameron was born into the world at the Royal Cornwall Hospital. 

COMPETITION: Ed beat David to Labour leadership power

In September, Ed Miliband beat stiff competition from Ed Balls, Andy Burnham, Diane Abbott and crucially, his brother David, to leadership of the Labour party at its annual conference in Manchester.  Ed got the nod, as he was backed significantly by the trade unions.  Four days later, David Miliband elected to quit frontline politics to spend more time with his family... 

As the clocks changed, times changed for the coalition government too.  With Ireland in trouble financially, George Osbourne agreed to lend them a massive bailout.  The figure of £7billion was stupid, to help ‘a friend in need.’  Ugly demonstrations soon followed, when MP’s recently decided to increase University tuition fees.  Scenes in London not seen for twenty years horrified many, but bought the popularity of the government significantly down.

2010 has had a load of interesting political stories, far more happened than in the ‘boring’ old days of the 90’s.  Will 2011 bring even more?  What can be said is that 2010’s year in politics will never be forgotten.

Ed Gets The Labour Nod of Approval

Ed Miliband has been chosen as Gordon Brown’s long-term successor to lead the Labour party into the next General Election and maybe beyond.  After months of hard campaigning, Ed surprised many by just getting enough votes to edge out his brother and favourite with many bookmakers, David Miliband.  The news was announced at the weekend, at the start of Labour’s annual party conference.  He will take over from Harriet Harman, who has been standing as acting deputy leader during the transitional period in British politics.

After four rounds of vote counting, Ed received a 1.3% bigger majority share to win the role and become the figurehead into challenging the coalition government for the next testing period that politics has to deal with, which is the inevitable spending cuts.  Fellow candidates Ed Balls, Andy Burnham and Diane Abbott were a distant third, fourth and fifth in the final votes, with the leadership already looking like it was heading to one of the Miliband brothers.

In his acceptance speech, Ed was full of praise for his brother:

“David, I love you so much.”  “To the country, I know we lost touch, I know we need to change.”  “Today begins a new generation for Labour.”

There is now intense speculation about the future of David Miliband political career.  Many insiders are expecting him to quit frontline politics to spend more time with his family.  Whatever he decides, his support for the Labour party must remain strong if the party is going to recover from the devastating blow of losing power in Downing Street when we went to vote back in May. 

Can Ed Miliband turn around the fortunes of the Labour party….he certainly has a tough and challenging job on his hands…..

Blair Publishes His 'Journey'

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has published his memoirs, and the book called ‘A Journey’ will make grim reading for his predecessor Gordon Brown.

Mr. Blair claims that his old ally, put him under “relentless personal pressure” and under his guidance, he was always convinced that the Labour party would lose May’s General Election.

Also in his memoirs, Blair, who has been out of UK politics spotlight since stepping down in June 2007 said that he did not regret going into war in Iraq in 2003, and also opens up about his feelings on the death of Diana, Princess of Wales in 1997 and a surprising omission regarding a drinking problem when under scrutiny.

‘A Journey’ is well on course to become a bestseller and most bookshops are selling the book at half-price, with Waterstones already coming out in saying that Blair’s book is the fastest-selling autobiography of all time.  All proceeds from the book will be donated to the Royal British Legion, in aid of the injured troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.  It is a must-read and I am for one looking forward to reading a detailed extract from a man at the top of his power for thirteen years.  

To many, Tony Blair will be seen as a controversial man, one who made some damming errors of judgement in his time in office.  However, his legacy shouldn’t be forgotten.  He built up New Labour and put the country back into some form of security and strength after years of doomed Conservative government. 

Blair’s book, ‘A Journey,’ is now available at www.amazon.co.uk for £12.50.

The Labour Leadership Contest Gets All Brotherly

   

He may have only vacated Downing Street and the most important job in politics one week ago, but the race is already underway to become Gordon Brown’s long-term successor of the Labour party.  Whilst Harriet Harman is standing in for now, whilst the party attempts to rebuild itself as an opposition force, it is the forthcoming battle between the Miliband brothers that could be the new storm in British politics.

As the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats settle into their coalition partnership, and sorting out pressing issues, such as the economy, our troops in Afghanistan and taxes, Labour gets ready to become an opposition force after thirteen years in power.  As MP’s return to duty on Wednesday, following the six week election campaign, it will be interesting to see who can lead Labour out of the doldrums on a long-term basis.  Already, former Chancellor Alistair Darling and Peter Mandelson have ruled themselves out of the race, whilst Harman has insisted she will not run long term, only interested in providing the much-needed stability that the party requires now.  However, fellow Labour MP’s, particular from the female side, want Harman to stand to prevent an all-male leadership contest.  Ex Schools-Secretary Ed Balls, an outspoken figure is expected to launch his bid this week, whilst there have been outside mentions for fellow MP’s Andy Burnham and Yvette Cooper.

However, the frontrunners appear to be the Miliband brothers.  On Saturday, the outgoing Energy Minister Ed Miliband announced his intention to stand for Brown’s vacant position.  The MP for Doncaster North, who launched his campaign in London, has insisted that there is no rivalry with his brother, David Miliband.  He also claimed he would support David, should he win and went out with the comment ‘Win or Lose, we will still be the best of friends.’  Whether that will happen, remains to be seen….For David Miliband, this is his chance to take control of the party.  Twice before, he could have challenged Gordon Brown for the leadership, but elected to support him rather than stand against him, and now with the vacant position open, he is the bookmakers favourite to land the Labour role.  A recent YouGov poll showed him coming out with 32% of the vote, more than half the percentage of the next closest, Harriet Harman with 11%.  The former Foreign Secretary, an MP for South Shields since 2001 and having served Labour on the Cabinet for eight years, is known to have some wide support from many sectors of the Labour fraternity.  Many already see him as the figurehead for the fightback to Downing Street.

There is unlikely to be such a complex deal, as there was with Gordon Brown and Tony Blair in 1994, after the untimely death of the popular John Smith, but there could well be many more twists, before the expected announcement, Labour’s annual party conference in September.  The race to be Gordon Brown’s long-term successor is well and truly on and it is really more closer than home than many may have anticipated.  

Cameron Gets The Keys, As Brown Makes A Dignified Exit

Just when you thought Monday's events couldn't be toppled, the political world was shaken once again, as after five days of bickering, negotiation and stalling, events unravelled last night, which now see the end of Labour rule.  After thirteen years in power, and three in No.10, Gordon Brown made a dignified exit from Downing Street and British politics.


Flanked by his family, he gave a graceful speech to the media, before heading off to Buckingham Palace, to tender his resignation to the Queen.  Around an hour later, the Queen accepted the request of David Cameron to form a coalition government, between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.  At last for many, Cameron has the keys to the most prestigious house in the UK.  As part of the deal, Nick Clegg is set to become the new Deputy Prime Minister, whilst Harriet Harman will step into Brown's shoes, as the Acting Labour Leader, until autumn's party conference.


No more words can describe the monumental shift in political power yesterday, so here are a few YouTube videos to sum things up.  The first is of a massive argument between Sky News Adam Boulton and Alistair Campbell, which nearly saw them come to blows live on TV.

The second is Gordon Brown's resignation speech outside Downing Street.

The last is David Cameron's inauguration speech as Prime Minister.

Gordon Goes, What Will Happen Next?

At 5pm today, Prime Minister Gordon Brown came out of No.10 Downing Street, to make a statement that shook the political world to the core.  He announced he was to step down as Labour leader as soon as possible.  He announced a leadership election for the party, and hoped that the new leader would be selected before Labour’s annual party conference this autumn.  He also said he would not play any part in the electoral process, nor back any candidate personally.  It was a dignified and gracious speech, but where does this leave the country now.  Lost and confused seems the best way to explain it.

The day started with William Hague, the Conservative Shadow Chancellor announcing to the media of another positive round of talks between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats.  Their leaders Nick Clegg and David Cameron have been locked in talks throughout the weekend.  However, the stumbling block of the Lib Dems determination to push forward its voting reform seem to have put all negotiations at a stalling process.  Later on, after a meeting with MP’s, Clegg confirmed that the PR scheme, which he hadn’t initially pushed for, was now a condition the Conservatives must meet.  At this stage, he also announced that he was to open talks with the Labour party.  So, was Brown pushed by his own party, did he step down on his own accord, or has Clegg pushed him out of Downing Street.

Throughout the election campaign, Nick Clegg has always maintained that he would not work with Gordon Brown, even calling him a ‘desperate politician’ at one stage.  With Brown suddenly leaving, some are already speculating that for the Lib Dems to do a deal with Labour, one of the conditions was for Gordon to quit.  Brown insisted that he had made the decision last week, after Labour’s overwhelming defeat, though not by a majority in the General Election.  Tonight, William Hague has launched a final set of negotiations for the Liberal Democrats, a ‘take it or leave it’ offer, which included a referendum on voting reform. 

For a Labour/Lib Dems coalition government to go through, it would still need to get past the magical 326 mark in the House of Commons.  Together, they can’t reach that figure, which means bringing in smaller parties, including Plaid Cwyrmu and the SNP (Scottish National Party).  That government just has ‘disaster’ written all over.  We haven’t heard much from David Cameron today, which is quite surprising, but with Brown stepping down, he can technically go to the Queen, to request and form a minority government.  Nick Clegg’s tactics are not smart at all, he is now playing off the two major parties, and it looks like he will sell out to the biggest party, which is what some people I know closely predicted around a fortnight ago.  Clegg and the Liberal Democrats political reputations are on the line, and their reluctance to do a deal, must worry the British people.  Some are probably wondering already, ‘Why did we vote, if we were going to get in this mess?’

Today’s announcement brings down the curtain-raiser on Gordon Brown’s long career in politics.  Starting out as a strong, political student at Edinburgh University, he got his first break in the Labour party in 1983, with younger hair, alongside a certain Tony Blair.  He was a strong figure in the Neil Kinnock regime, but the implications in May 1994 were going to have a sudden part in how today’s politics is shaped. 

The sudden death of the Labour leader John Smith, from a fatal heart attack looked to have set the path for Brown to take over as Labour leader.  Reluctantly and under pressure from many Labour figureheads, he gave way to Blair, who swept into power in 1997 via a landslide majority.  Brown was always seething in private, even if he put a brave face in public, but as the cracks started to appear in the Blair regime over Iraq, Brown did little to support.  At times, there seemed to be complete civil war between the pair.  Eventually, he got the long-awaited keys to No.10 in June 2007, when Blair decided to step aside.  However, he was never elected as a Prime Minister and at the first opportunity; the people decided he wasn’t good enough to run the country anymore.  Charity and volunteer work destined for the soon to be incumbent Labour Prime Minister.

This story is far from over, and with MP’s due back for business in Westminster next Tuesday, something needs to happen and quickly.  Gordon Brown’s shock decision has put Labour firmly back in the race, but all that we know tonight, is that the British political system is in shock and chaos and the country lost and confused?  What happens next is anyone’s guess….

2010 General Election Results - Hung Parliament Is The Outcome, What Happens Now?

   

So, the country (or most of it) has had its say and it is quite clear from the results that Britain wants change.  Although he failed to get the magic number of 326 seats in the House of Commons, the Conservative Party and David Cameron have the most seats and this lunchtime, Cameron is the favourite to form a government in the coming days.

With 294 seats so far, the Tories did very well last night, though not the landslide that everyone predicted at the start of the year.  Labour finished a confident 2^nd, but lost at least 80 MP’s last night, and looks set to relinquish power in the country, after thirteen turbulent years of British politics.  The main Labour men, including Deputy Leader Harriet Harman and Peter Mandelson, had hoped that Gordon Brown would be able to strike a deal with the Liberal Democrats, to form a strong government.  Those final hopes were dashed at 10.45am, when Nick Clegg returned to the Liberal Democrats headquarters and confirmed, he thinks the Conservative Party should have first choice in being able to form the government.  Clegg has firmly put the ball in Cameron’s court now, with the condition to change the electoral reform system, which has plagued Britain in this election.

For the Liberal Democrats, it was a very disappointing outcome.  Nick Clegg had hope for nearly a hundred seats in the new House of Commons.  Instead, they dropped at least ten seats short of what they did in 2005.  After all the promise from the three hotly-contested TV debates, their potential turned as flat as a giant pancake.  This morning, he admitted the disappointment, but is still confident of positive change for the future. 

Despite not gaining the majority he was looking for, David Cameron seemed fairly satisfied with the result.  At 2.30pm today, he will release a statement to the media, with his plans of how to form a government.  The keys to No.10 are getting ever closer, and if he can work together with Clegg, by making some minor changes to his manifesto, for the best of the country, this ‘Hung Parliament’ combination might not be so bad.  However, with no overall winner, the chances of a five-year term look increasingly unlikely.

Gordon Brown has returned to Downing Street and as things stand, he is still Prime Minister.  However, he has released a statement suggested “he is open for discussion for civil parties to form a government, for the good of the country.”  Most people in Westminster seem to think that Brown has to step down today for the best of the UK.  I would agree with these suggestions, I struggle to see how Gordon can survive now, because although Labour figureheads will deny it, it was a bad night last night.  Although they prevented a landslide that hit the Tories in 1997, they lost a lot of seats, especially in the East Anglia region, with the Tories snatching Ipswich, Colchester, Northampton and Milton Keynes from long-standing Labour leaders.  I’m afraid Brown’s time is up, and the sooner he calls the removal van from Downing Street, the better for the country’s stability and its future.

The Green Party won a historic seat in Brighton, their first ever in the House of Commons and other significant figures that lost seats last night include former Education Secretary Charles Clarke, beaten in Norwich by the Liberal Democrats and the ex-Home Secretary Jacqui Smith, overcome by the Conservatives in Redditch, after thirteen successful years.  Ed Balls held onto his seat, denying the media a ‘Michael Portillo 1997’ moment.  He then went onto accuse Sky News of patriotism bias throughout the election campaign, much to the chagrin of its political Journalist, Adam Boulton, who looked flabbergasted by Ed’s outburst.

It means that we have our first Hung Parliament since 1974, and it is probably not what Britain needed, especially as we are still dealing with the fall-out from the crippling worldwide recession.  The question is now, can we cope with this scenario.  If the parties bang their head together, we might be able to limit the damage.  What I can say for sure, is that the future is very unpredictable for the country, anything is possible….anything.

General Election 2010: Four Weeks of Crazy Campaigning

      

On Tuesday 6^th April 2010, the worst secret in politics was revealed, when the Prime Minister emerged out of No.10 Downing Street, flanked by his closest allies.  Gordon Brown confirmed what we had all predicted, the 2010 General Election would be held on Thursday May 6^th.  Nobody could have predicted the amazing twists and turns that have followed since that sunny, Tuesday morning.  As polling day approaches, it is interesting to lookback at the moments that have made this General Election the closest battle since 1992. 

The early sparring was between the two heavyweights of the political spectrum, Gordon Brown, and the Conservative leader David Cameron.  As the battle lines were drawn, it was Cameron who held a significant advantage in the early forecast polls.  Meanwhile, Brown was failing to deliver on his initial promise of interacting with the people across the UK.  An angry father proved this as early as day two in ‘Campaign 2010,’ when he approached Mr. Brown about why his son couldn’t get into his preferred primary school.  Gordon walked past him and ignored him, without a care in the world, to which the father response was ‘Joke!’  If David Cameron thought that he had the election under control, an historic event turned politics on its head just one week later.

On Thursday 15^th April, at Manchester’s Granada Studios, Alistair Stewart hosted the first ever live TV election debate between the three main party leaders.  The 90-minute debate, broadcast live on ITV1, saw a resounding victory for the Liberal Democrats leader Nick Clegg.  Cameron’s underperformance on that night might well cost him the keys to Downing Street.  On the Liberal Democrats Twitter homepage, they posted the following tweet: “Vote for real change, not fake change,” straight after the debate.  All of a sudden, Clegg was on a crest of wave and the YouGov, Sky News and ITN polls soon had him surging ahead of Brown and into second place.  Former Liberal Democrat leader Paddy Ashdown was convinced that the tide was turning: “I think last night potentially was a game change."  Labour was suffering and soon, they were under attack from natural forces.

The volcanic eruption in Iceland on the same day of the first election debate caused havoc for travellers, as air travel was grounded for the best part of five days.  The ramifications are still being felt across the globe today with Cameron and Clegg strongly criticising Labour’s handling of the travel chaos.  The focus of attention seemed to be on their slow response to the crisis and the decision to ground all air travel for so long.  Once again, this disaster would hurt Labour in the polls.  Could the second live election debate turns things back in their favour?

Realising that the tide was swinging away from him, Gordon Brown urged Nick Clegg to join forces to keep the Tories out of No.10.  Clegg’s response was that Brown is “a desperate politician.”  In the Sky News Leaders Debate on April 22^nd, the results weren’t as clear cut, although many experts believed that Clegg edged the contest again, despite having to endure Adam Boulton’s question on his private expenses, which had made that day’s front page of The Daily Telegraph.  Conservative Shadow Chancellor William Hague said on Twitter – “David Cameron has done really well tonight, explaining his positions with great clarity and conviction and taking no nonsense from the rest.”  Despite this, the Tories needed another surge and last Wednesday, it came in the shape of Gillian Duffy, a long-time Labour supporter.

Following a seemingly pleasant conversation with Duffy in Rochdale, Gordon Brown forgot his Sky News microphone remained on as he was driven away, and his damming comment left him embarrassed and humiliated.  “Everything, she’s just a bigoted woman that said she used to be Labour, I mean, it’s just ridiculous.” An apology swiftly followed, but with egg on his face, followed by another dismal performance in the BBC Election Debate on April 29th, it meant that the possibility of a Labour majority in the polls had been well and truly extinguished. 

So, tomorrow, the nation decides who should be in power for the next five years.  This General Election campaign has swung back and forth and as the political parties head into the finishing straight, it is still too close to forecast the final outcome.  As Nick Clegg has said already – “The cross you put on the ballot paper is small, but what you are doing is big."  It is now for us to decide.

Gordon Gaff Might Well Have Blown It For Brown

Apart from close neighbours, no-one would have heard about Gillian Duffy until yesterday, when an exchange with views saw Labour’s General Election campaign blow up in spectacular fashion.  Who would have thought that going off to the shop to buy a loaf of bread would cause such a political storm.

Gordon Brown was campaigning in Rochdale yesterday, desperate to turn around Labour’s fortunes in the polls, which have taken a significant hit from a campaign that has lacked inspiration throughout.  He and Duffy ended up in conversation on the street for around five minutes, through the advice of Brown’s PA, who discovered that Duffy was a long-standing supporter of the Labour party.  It seemed fairly pleasant, with Gordon defending the party’s policies and Duffy, pointing out their failings, including the hotly-debated subject of Eastern European immigrants.  They parted on good terms, but as Gordon Brown disappeared into the back of his car, he had forgot to turn off a microphone, contributed by Sky News for the campaign trail.  The next discussion was a blunder of the first magnitude.

Brown: “That was a disaster!” “Well, they should never have put me with that woman, whose idea was that?”

PA: “I don’t know, I didn’t see.”

Brown: “It was Sue I think, it’s just ridiculous.”

PA: “What did she say?

Brown: “EVERYTHING, SHE’S JUST SOME SORT OF BIGOTED WOMAN, THAT SAID SHE USED TO BE LABOUR.  I MEAN IT’S JUST RIDICULOUS”

He isn’t the first to have been caught out by the microphone.  In 1993, after a TV interview with ITN, John Major called his Cabinet colleagues “b######s”, promising to “crucify them,” whilst the likes of Ronald Reagan, George Bush and Prince Charles have also been embarrassed by the power of the clip-on mic.  With tonight’s leadership debate on the BBC focused on the economy, this was the worst possible time for Brown to produce such a horrendous moment of judgement.  His next appointment, on the Jeremy Vine Show for BBC Radio 2 showed his complete guilt.

Rather than continue fully with the trail in Manchester, Brown returned to the scene of his crime, to apologise to Gillian Duffy for his ‘slip of the tongue.’  He came out infront of the cameras, beaming with smiles, saying all was forgiven and forgotten.  However, the latest polls may pull out a different scenario.  The world’s media were obsessed yesterday with another twist that has turned this General Election campaign on its head.  With seven days to go, Gordon Brown has dug himself into a major hole and it might be too late to dig him out of it.  Yesterday, these private recriminations expose the Prime Minister to public humiliation.  He has a massive fight on his hands now, to restore the reputation of himself and his beleaguered party.  A resounding victory in tonight’s debate is the only ways forward.

The Sky News Leaders Debate - Back In The Balance

Last night, the race tightened and got even more interesting in the battle to become the UK’s next Prime Minister.  The second of the hotly anticipated televised leadership debates in Bristol, fronted by Sky News and its highly-respected political journalist Adam Boulton showed no clear cut winner, and put everything firmly back in the balance.

Following his overwhelming success with many in the ITV debate the previous Thursday, Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has been on a crest wave, even attracting a popular Facebook group, with similar implications to the Rage against the Machine campaign to Christmas No.1 last year.  Was this the night when Clegg’s bubble was going to burst?  Well, it seems like the Liberal Democrats are happy with his performance, though I must admit; I thought he was the weakest out of the three leaders.  By being in the middle of the stage, the pressure was firmly fixated on him and he lacked conviction when coming across with his answers.  The most damming response was when Boulton asked him a simple question about his appearance on yesterday’s Daily Telegraph, in regard to donor money being paid into his personal bank account.  It was an awkward response; “Yes, it is absolute nonsense, but moving away from that.”  It certainly looked like he had something to hide.

David Cameron, the Conservative leader was expected to get the most out of these debates, and last week, he struggled to make an impact.  Last night, he was back to his usual self, and didn’t hold back, like he had seven days earlier.  Cameron looked far more confident and fluent and wasn’t afraid in going on the attack.  His annoyance with Clegg’s stance on MP expenses was impressive and he really was made irate by Labour’s Gordon Brown, urging him to withdraw some posters, slamming the Tories policies for the elderly, such as the removal of free bus passes, eye tests and prescriptions.  Though Cameron admitted live that all of those policies will stay, he clearly was very angry with the leaflet campaign, using the word ‘lies’ against the Labour party.  This was a very strong word to use and I did feel that was unnecessary.  On the closing speeches, he attacked Labour again, saying that Brown’s closing speech to the debate “sounded desperate, in a bid to frighten people.” 

The 90-minute debate, based initially on International Affairs, then on other questions for the audience, was bound to be a grilling for Gordon Brown.  Nevertheless, he can be fairly satisfied with the performance he gave.  He seemed far more punchy and convincing than in the inaugural debate, and not as mundane or pedestrian.  The very commanding approach paid off in some areas, and he was not frightened to go on the attack, slamming Clegg’s ‘anti-American policies’ and the ‘nuclear weapons ignoring’ policy, a real danger with Iran and North Korea still a major threat in the nuclear society.  He told Clegg to “get real, get real,” with that, showing he wasn’t frightened to dish it out, as well as take it.  He highlighted the Tories manifesto to not have the free eye test/prescription, which was very brave, but maybe not give the result he was looking for on that area, following Cameron’s insult back.  However, if Gordon wants to win the commanding votes, he needs to get out there and promote his face further.  Some Labour insiders think the campaign is lacklustre at the moment, and needs a big lift, so he still has the most work to do, in efforts to convince the voters. 

Adam Boulton did an outstanding job last night in chairing the debate, unlike Alistair Stewart who lost control of the debate and probably the occasion, the previous Thursday.  He allowed the debate to flow and as a result, it was a far better watch.  According to ITN’s poll results straight afterwards, Clegg won the debate, with 33%, far lesser than last week’s margin, yet still a victory.  Both Cameron and Brown were tied on 30%.  This seemed to be more of a common debate at Prime Minister’s Questions; the nerves weren’t as bad from anyone from the previous week.

With less than two weeks to go until we go to the polls, it couldn’t be any closer to call.  Nick Clegg was less fresh last night and was missing the bold attitude that came across during the first debate.  David Cameron can reflect on a much more polished performance, but is still looking for a major breakthrough if he wants a majority government.  Gordon Brown did far better than expected last night, and can take a lot of satisfaction from this.  I would give Cameron the edge in round two of the debates, but it is still too close to call and the BBC’s debate next week now has much more significance.  The General Election 2010 is firmly back in the balance.   

The First Election Debate - The Jury Is Out...

Last night, television history was made, when at the Granada Studios in Manchester, the first ever General Election live debate between the three main leaders of the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties took place.  Sharp exchanges on hot topics such as immigration, crime and MP expenses were the main headlines, as Nick Clegg, Gordon Brown and David Cameron went toe-to-toe on the home affairs and policies that dominated their manifestos earlier this week.

At the beginning of the debate, all three leaders looked petrified, as if they had just seen a hideous ghost.  Their opening intros seemed more akin to the 90’s show, Blind Date, not an electoral debate.  However, as the debate went on, the sparring began. 

Having recorded the debate and watched it this morning, the clear winner was the Liberal Democrats leader, Nick Clegg.  Clegg was excellent throughout.  His intro was based on ‘there is an alternative,’ for us, whereas his rivals focused on a certain policy.  He was always talking to the camera and he looked very relaxed and totally professional at work.  He definitely seemed to gain the most out of this first debate, as proven by the instant reaction from ITV News after the debate. 

A sample from over 4,000 people, a TV first showed that Clegg got 43% of the vote for Which party leader do you think won the debate?  That was an overwhelming margin, compared to David Cameron, who was second with 26%.  For Cameron, last night was not his best night.  A people’s person, he seemed a bit lacklustre and though his points on immigration and getting discipline back into our education system were very worthy, he seemed to be holding something back.  The outcome of these polled results certainly suggests this.

This was never going to be Gordon Brown’s strongest area, but he will need to do a lot better if he is going to win another five years at No. 10 Downing Street.  Brown urged us to stick by him, saying ‘We’ve got to get this economy moving forward again.’  However, his defence of the immigration issue, the reliance he seemed to be holding towards Clegg was noticeable and whereas David Cameron’s body language did look strong at times, Brown looked in comparison, very weak.  His determination to stick by the National Insurance tax proposal, plus the need to spend ourselves out of recession drew a lot of criticism from his main opponent.  Cameron responded by saying: ‘Gordon is effectively saying, I want to waste more money, and then put up your taxes later.’  Finally, his jokey attitude towards some posters that the Tories have put up of him, with a smile on his face did not work at all.  Wise words Gordon, humour will not win you this election.

Chairing this debate was the former London Tonight anchorman, Alistair Stewart.  At best, his performance was very mediocre, pretty poor to be honest.  Stewart struggled to show the authority needed to chair a hotly-contested debate like this and at times, looked like he was going to lose control of the situation.  I’d expect Adam Boulton and David Dimbelby to put in better performances when chairing Sky and BBC’s debates in the next fortnight.

An average of 9.4million watched ITV’s coverage of the 90-minute show between 8.30pm and 10pm, peaking at 10million in places, with no commercial breaks for advertisements, a speciality for ITV it must be said.  Clegg may have been the bookies favourite, but in a way, the pressure is now on him to deliver next time on Sky News, to prove that his excellent performance was not a fluke.  The latest poll from The Times suggests that David Cameron has increased his lead to six points, 37% to Brown’s 31% and Clegg’s 21%.  However, that’s still no way near enough to win a majority at an election looming, just three weeks later.

At times, this debate felt a bit sterile, lacking some of the drama I had been expecting.  Everything remains in the balance and the jury is still out, especially on the undecided voters.  However, round one certainly belonged to Nick Clegg and it has blown the race to Downing Street wide open now…

The General Election - The Race Is On!

      

So, quite possibly the worse kept secret in UK politics is out.  Gordon Brown did his duty today and gave us the expected date we were waiting for.  Thursday 6^th May will be the day when the 2010 General Election takes place, the day when we visit the polls, the day when we get our say to decide whether we want change or continuity.

This is shaping up to be the closest General Election since 1992, certainly for many, the closest in generations.  Voting figures have lowered over the last three elections, largely following Tony Blair’s landslide victory in 1997, followed by years of continuous dominance from the Labour party, whilst the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats went through lean periods of decline and obscurity.  Now, things have closed up, meaning the possible majority of a Home Parliament should shake the fear into anyone.  For this country to move forward, following the dark days of the recession and MP’s expenses, it is essential we end up with a majority parliament.

Since inheriting power from Blair, when he decided to walk in 2007, Gordon Brown has had a rough and rocky ride for sure.  There are many judgements that have been made, many more that can be made.  However, he is sure to do his damnest to keep Labour in Downing Street.  Consequently, with Labour trailing in most opinion polls by around ten points, his impact on the leadership debates, to be televised live by ITV, the BBC and Sky News could have a massive influence on the final outcome.  Labour’s campaign message is based firmly on the economy and the recovery that we are meant to be in.  They are determined that change will ruin the country completely, although whether that is the case is unknown.

Labour’s determination to increase the National Insurance tax has angered their rival parties and the Liberal Democrats are convinced that after sixty-five years of Tory and Labour government, they deserve a proper say in the country.  Nick Clegg certainly gives the party their best chance at a General Election for nearly twenty years.  He is the fresh, prompt face that the Liberals needed after the ageing Menzies Campbell.  Despite reports of coalition with the Tories, Clegg is determined to do things his own way, which is brave, but could well reap results for the Liberal Democrats at the polls.

Many believe that David Cameron is the man to lead Britain into this second decade.  Cameron is fresh, opinionated and strong-minded and has incentives and drive that may be missing from the Brown administration.  His impact on politics seems similar to Barack Obama over in America, but he is the man who is quite possibly under pressure the most.  The Conservative party are the slight favourites to inherit power from May 7^th onwards.  However, that doesn’t mean they will win, just ask Labour’s Neil Kinnock, who was the long-term favourite in 1992, yet was gazumped at the post by John Major. 

The campaign trail has already begun and for the next four weeks, the party leaders will travel the full width and breadth of the country in an effort to persuade voters that their vision is truly the way to go.  Attacking and defensive strategies are already being applied by the parties, keen to win key seats, unexpected and expected seats.  The battle lines have been drawn – let the race to May 6^th and Downing Street begin!